Spreadsheet on development liabilities?
Chuck,
I don't suppose you have a spreadsheet template showing expenses vs income for development that could be filled out for specific cases?
Every time I hear the argument about the development liability, I always wonder how it breaks down (roads vs. sewer/water vs schools, etc). It seems that there is a natural split between $/person added and $/mile added. So you need schools regardless of miles of roadway, more or less. So, to compare development strategy, you need to know both.
I would expect a spreadsheet values to be different for every town, and debatable as well, but I would be likely try to fill it out based on local data, as backup to any discussions with local officials.
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You're right -- I don't have any such thing. If we look just at the revenue side, here in Minnesota we have 36 tax classifications, each city has a different tax rate, and of course this all varies year to year. Each state has its own intricate and nuanced rules and exceptions. If we did this for one city, it would take a lot of effort and then wouldn't be valid anywhere else. And that's just revenue. Expenses are more complicated. And localized.
You are correct that there are costs that are linear (like feet of road) and costs that are lumpy (like water towers) and then costs that fall somewhere in between (like fire departments). A lot of my pre-2008, pre-Strong Towns efforts was to figure this out mathematically. It led me to two conclusions.
First, if I couldn't figure it out -- AND I WAS TRYING -- nobody involved with the city or giving advice on a project had any idea (because they weren't even asking the question, even finding it absurd).
Second, there was no macro answer. The only thing to be done was to do this analysis on a project-by-project basis, to infer what was going on in the macro by studying what could be measured in the micro, and -- in the face of the unknown -- work to replicate the most productive parts of the development pattern while taking steps to improve productivity over time.
Ok I get it. I guess was thinking that I only need linear costs since 200 people in town need the same number of "lumps" (eg, sewage treatment plants) as 200 people 3 miles outside of town.
So, if I can ignore revenue differences (for residential), then it gets simpler. But still tricky as I'm not sure who funds roadway construction. Virginia has county roads, state roads and the some interstates. I know my town does snow removal on town but not sure if they rebuild in town.
Leesburg just annexed now land from the county and I wondered whose budget that benefits long term. Also, they are building data centers here, but I think the main issue is where we build houses and sadly sprawl is still the method. Not many employees in data centers, "just" massive energy and water waste.
I guess I will ask for and study the budgets of town and county. Not sure I will accomplish much but I need to try. Going to planning commission working meeting tonight to say hello.
We're not an official LC yet, which another story, so I appreciate you answering the question.
I'm glad you're here. FYI, it's not ready yet, but tentatively in the first part of next year, we will be releasing some kind of budget tool to help with the macro trend analysis. I'm convinced there is no math answer to this, not only because you don't bring math to an emotions fight but also because it is just way too complicated for people to do credibly. Having trends for how a city is doing on debt service, assets/liabilities ratio, and maintenance of capital investments is designed to prompt questions and invite more people to grapple with these questions.
Fwiw,
Using Gemini and ChatGPT, I learned (if true), that Loudoun County has allocated $1.4 Billion for transportation infrastructure (a sadly vague term) over the next 6 years in their Capital Improvement plan, and that there are 2900 miles of roads, which works out to a cost of about $80K per road mile per year.
I'll try to digest the plan to look for holes in that argument. I think it's likely conservative in that newer roads are included in the mileage total, but they are not spending money on the newer roads.
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